Local Impacts

Case studies:
Cascade amphibians, oysters, salmon, pteropods.
Global: walrus, emporer penguin, arctic fox, ringed seals, beluga whale, coral, clownfish, koala bear, leatherback turtle, flamingos, musk ox, hawksbill turtle

Oregon vineyards - http://www.opb.org/programs/ofg/segments/view/1620?q=global+warming

Oregon field guide (history of little lake in the mountains 2005):  http://www.opb.org/programs/ofg/segments/view/1067?q=global+warming

The Pacific Northwest is blessed with an amazing diversity of coastal habitats, from rocky bluffs and sandy beaches along the Pacific Coast to the tidal flats, marshes, mixed sediment beaches and eelgrass beds of Puget Sound. Together, these habitats support thousands of species of fish and wildlife, and they are a linchpin for the regional economy, culture and quality of life.

Despite its pristine image, however, the region's coastal habitats and the ecological systems they support face serious problems from global warming:

• Recent studies project that the Pacific Northwest will see a rise in sea level of 20-56 inches by 2100.
• Among the most vulnerable habitats is estuarine beach, which provides vital spawning areas for forage fish, including surf smelt and sand lance, which in turn provide food for birds, marine mammals, salmon, and other fish and wildlife.
• More than two-thirds of beaches in the Tacoma area are predicted to be lost by 2100.
• The Seattle area is built on high land, and so would have limited impact due to sea level rise. However, 741-988 acres of dry land will become marsh or tidal flat. More than half of estuarine beaches in the area will be lost.

(Source: http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/Effects-on-Wildlife-and-Habitat/Estuaries-and-Coastal-Wetlands/Pacific-Northwest.aspx)
Local sea level change impacts:

• Beaches where rivers meet open water will be inundated and eroded for a 65 percent loss.
• As much as 44 percent of tidal flat will disappear.
• 13 percent of inland fresh marsh and 25 percent of tidal fresh marsh will be lost.

"We know that we must respond to climate change; this report highlights the need to act immediately," said Gov. Chris Gregoire (D-WA). "Changes to coastal habitats will have not only consequences for fish and wildlife, but for the business and workers that depend on them for survival."
The report recommends several steps in planning future use of coastal resources. Coastal managers must account for global warming in habitat restoration efforts. Civic planners should also incorporate sea-level rise in coastal development plans, discouraging development in coastal hazard areas, moving or abandoning shoreline infrastructure, preserving ecological buffers to allow inland habitat migration, and enhancing shoreline protection recognizing the negative consequences for shoreline habitat. Finally, public officials must not let the uncertainties of climate change - whether seas will rise a couple of feet or a couple of yards - as an excuse for inaction.
"Global warming isn't just about melting glaciers thousands of miles away, it could have a dramatic impact on the health of our beloved coastlines, marine life, even the size of the snowpack that feeds the Columbia River system," said Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA). "If America fails to address climate change, we'll be jeopardizing all of our hard-fought conservation gains and putting thousands of local jobs at risk. Fortunately with our history of innovation and growing clean energy economy, Washington is well-poised to lead the way towards solving this difficult challenge."
(Science Daily reporting on NWF study:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070727211602.htm)

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Global-warming-will-change-Pacific-Northwest-1199312.php

Hydrology

Changes in temperature and precipitation will continue to decrease snow pack, and will affect stream flow and water quality throughout the Pacific Northwest region. Warmer temperatures will result in more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow throughout much of the Pacific Northwest, particularly in mid-elevation basins where average winter temperatures are near freezing. This change will result in:

1. Less winter snow accumulation,
2. Higher winter streamflows,
3. Earlier spring snowmelt,
4. Earlier peak spring streamflow and lower summer streamflows in rivers that depend on snowmelt (most rivers in the Pacific Northwest)

The decline of the region's snowpack is predicted to be greatest at low and middle elevations due to increases in air temperature and less precipitation falling as snow. The average decline in snowpack in the Cascade Mountains, for example, was about 25% over the last 40 to 70 years, with most of the decline due to the 2.5 degrees F increase in cool season air temperatures over that period. As a result, seasonal stream flow timing will likely shift significantly in sensitive watersheds. (Littell et-al., 2009)

Forests

Studies and the results of vegetation change modeling suggest that a number of different scenarios are possible for Pacific Northwest forests. These scenarios differ dramatically, ranging from projections of forest expansion to forest dieback, as a result of uncertainty regarding how projected temperature and precipitation changes will interact to affect drought stress in trees or otherwise modify total annual productivity. Other major uncertainties are whether increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere would increase primary productivity or help trees withstand reduced soil moisture. The likeliest scenario seems to be that increased forest growth could occur during the next few decades, but that at some point temperature increases would overwhelm the ability of trees to make use of higher winter precipitation and higher CO2.

In any case, the changes in climate are likely to cause plant communities to undergo shifts in their species composition and/or experience changes in densities. Species range shifts are expected to be individualistic rather than primarily as collections of currently associated species. In other words, species won't all move together. Extinction of local populations and, potentially, species are expected with climate change. Species with poor dispersal ability may have particular difficulty in shifting their spatial distributions in response to climatic changes. Loss of biological diversity will occur if environmental shifts outpace species migration rates and interact with population dynamics to cause increased rates of local population extinction. (Littell et al., 2009)

Wildfire

Virtually all future climate scenarios predict increases in wildfire in western North America, especially east of the Cascades, due to higher summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt.  Fire frequency and intensity have already increased in the past 50 years, and most notably the past 15 years in the shrub steppe and forested regions of the West. The area burned by fire regionally is projected to double by the 2040s and triple by the 2080s. The probability that more than two million acres will burn in a given year is projected to increase from 5% (observed) to 33% by the 2080s. USFS and CIG researchers have linked these trends to climate changes. Drought and hotter temperatures have also led to an increase in outbreaks of insects, such as the mountain pine beetle, increasing the risk of fire. (Littell et al., 2009)

Sea Level Rise

The melting of mountain glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets along with the thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue to increase sea level for many hundreds of years into the future. The consensus estimate of sea level rise by 2100, published in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment, was estimated at 0.6 to 2.0 ft.  Improved estimates of the range of sea level rise by 2100, which now include estimated effects of ice dynamics, lie between 2.6 and 6.6 ft, a significantly higher estimate.

As a result of sea level rise, low lying coastal areas will eventually be inundated by seawater or periodically over-washed by waves and storm surges. Coastal wetlands will become increasingly brackish as seawater inundates freshwater wetlands. New brackish and freshwater wetland areas will be created as seawater inundates low lying inland areas or as the freshwater table is pushed upward by the higher stand of seawater.  (Pfeffer, W.T., et al., 2008)

Ocean Acidification

The ocean will eventually absorb most carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere as a result of the burning of fossil fuels.  Dissolving of carbon dioxide into ocean surface waters will increase the acidity of ocean surface waters. Oceanic absorption of CO2 from fossil fuels may result in larger acidification changes over the next several centuries than any inferred from the geological record of the past 300 million years (with the possible exception of those resulting from rare, extreme events such as meteor impacts).

Virtually every major biological function has been shown to respond to acidification changes in seawater, including photosynthesis, respiration rate, growth rates, calcification rates, reproduction, and recruitment.  Much of the attention has focused on carbonate-based animals and plants which form the foundation of our marine ecosystems. An increase in ocean acidity is likely to result in a decline in the ability of coral reefs to maintain their calcium carbonate structure. Phytoplankton that utilize calcium carbonate are also likely to decline in abundance, along with other carbonate-dependent animals such as marine snails and carbonate-dependent plants such as red marine algae.
(Smith and Baker, 2008, and Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry Program, 2008).

Coastal and Marine Environments

In addition to temperature and rainfall changes, researchers and others have observed rising sea levels and changes to ocean conditions.  Some important climate-related factors to consider are sea level, air and sea surface temperatures, winter precipitation, and storminess. These factors influence coastal erosion, landslides, flooding and inundation, estuarine water quality, and invasion of exotic species. In particular, the following conditions increase the risk associated with various coastal hazards:

1. Increased sea level (associated with El Niño events during winter and spring) increases the risk of coastal erosion,
2. Increased winter precipitation (associated with La Niña years, and cool phase PDO years) increases the risk of coastal river flooding and landslides,
3. Southeasterly winter storms (associated with El Niño events during winter and spring) increase the risk of coastal erosion, and
4. The co-occurrence of these three conditions increases the likelihood of large, damaging coastal erosion and flooding events.

In the Pacific Northwest, climate change may affect the coastal marine environment by increasing ocean temperature, increasing the vertical stratification of the water column (reducing mixing which is important to the marine food chain), and changing the intensity and timing of coastal winds and upwelling.  Wind-driven coastal upwelling and mixing are particularly important to productive marine ecosystems that support diverse marine life, major fisheries and seabirds.  Upwelling usually brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface in nearshore areas, supporting highly productive food webs.  However, too much wind may transport planktonic organisms offshore and away from coastal areas.  These coastal systems are highly variable in both locality and time. Natural changes can occur daily, weekly, seasonally, yearly or even every ten years. And upwelling can vary greatly due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events which occur on average every 2 to 7 years, as well as decadal shifts known as cool or warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  For example, El Niño events often result in reduced upwelling and productivity.
(Littell et-al., 2009)
The Fish and Wildlife Service’s 2009 5-year review of the Marbled Murrelet (pp. 42-45) contains a thorough evaluation of climate change affects to the marine environment.  The review concludes that climate change is likely to result in changes to the murrelet’s marine environment. While physical changes to the near-shore environment appear likely, much remains to be learned about the magnitude, geographic extent, and temporal and spatial patterns of change, and their effects on coastal and marine species.

Salmon

Climate change affects salmon throughout its life stages. Historically, warm periods in the coastal ocean have coincided with relatively low abundances of salmon, while cooler ocean periods have coincided with relatively high salmon numbers.
Salmon productivity in the Pacific Northwest is clearly sensitive to climate-related changes in stream, estuary, and ocean conditions. In the past century, most Pacific Northwest salmon populations have fared best in periods having high precipitation, deep mountain snowpack, cool air and water temperatures, cool coastal ocean temperatures, and abundant north-to-south "upwelling" winds in spring and summer.
Rising stream temperatures will likely reduce the quality and extent of freshwater salmon habitat. The duration of periods that cause thermal stress and migration barriers to salmon is projected to at least double and perhaps quadruple by the 2080s for most analyzed streams and lakes. The greatest increases in thermal stress (including diseases and parasites which thrive in warmer waters) would occur in the Interior Columbia River Basin and the Lake Washington Ship Canal. The combined effects of warming stream temperatures and altered stream flows will very likely reduce the reproductive success of many salmon populations in Washington watersheds, but impacts will vary according to different life-history types and watershed-types. As more winter precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, higher winter stream flows scour streambeds, damaging spawning nests and washing away incubating eggs for Pacific Northwest salmon. Earlier peak stream flows flush young salmon from rivers to estuaries before they are physically mature enough for transition, increasing a variety of stressors including the risk of being eaten by predators.

Studies suggest that one third of the current habitat for either the endangered or threatened Northwest salmon species will no longer be suitable for them by the end of this century as key temperature thresholds are exceeded.
(Littell et-al., 20009)

Figure 9 is excerpted from The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment , University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group, June 2009

(Source: http://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepnw.html)

Interview and info on how wildfires are worsened by global warming
Pine beetles:
ICN: Much of the dead fuel that has accumulated has been attributed to pine beetles, which have killed millions of trees. Has climate change played a role in the beetle's population explosion?
Running: As a rough estimate, you need a few nights of -30 degrees once every five to 10 years (to keep pine beetles under control). Those really cold nights knock the population back, and they take years to recover. In the past, -30 degree winter night temperatures did occasionally occur.
ICN: How much have the wintertime lows been going up?
Running: Here in Montana, the absolute minimum temperature, the coldest night of the year, has gone up 10 degrees.

ICN: You've said the snowpack is disappearing two weeks earlier, on average, and that's contributing to the fire danger. Are there areas of the West that are losing their snowpack even sooner?
Running: The mountain areas we see most at risk are the Cascades and Sierra with "warm" snow packs right near 32 degrees. With very little warming, they melt. Colder, drier snow, like in the higher elevation Rockies, can warm up a few degrees and still not melt until the end of the season.

ICN: What are some of the things fires are doing now that they rarely if ever did before?Running: Nighttime low humidity and lack of dewfall allow some fires to burn actively all night long, along with dry winds. They burn down hills, they throw embers miles ahead.
ICN: Do we need to rethink how and where people live in the West? Has this rethinking started?
Running: The big thing is to rethink the "cabin nestled in the trees." Houses/cabins need to have a good perimeter of nonflammable surface and people need to pay attention to advice on things like flammable cushions on deck chairs and other "fire wise" principles.
ICN: What will the West's future look like, if greenhouse gas emissions stay on their current pace?
Running: We expect Western landscapes to get more arid as they warm up, and the winter snowpack to diminish in size and seasonal duration. This means that water management will be even a bigger deal than now, if that's possible.
ICN: Do you think the average person is making the connection between the mammoth fires we're experiencing, climate change and their increased likelihood in the future?
Running: Sadly, not enough. Few journalists bother to explain the logic to connect today's events to long-term trends. It is hard for people to understand that increasing probability is not a certainty—but that it's still important in these types of critical topics like wildfire. These events are giving us a window into conditions that will be considered normal in the future.

Hypoxia:
Low-oxygen zones where sea life is threatened or can't survive are growing as the oceans are heated by global warming, a new study says.
Oxygen-depleted zones in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic and equatorial Pacific oceans appear to have expanded over the past 50 years, researchers report in Friday's edition of the journal Science.
Low-oxygen zones in the Gulf of Mexico and other areas also have been studied in recent years, raising concerns about the threat to sea life.
Continued expansion of the zones could have dramatic consequences for sea life and coastal economies, said the team led by Lothar Stramma of the University of Kiel in Germany.
A similar study published in the national journal Science in February by an Oregon State University team found that the "dead zones" that have suffocated marine life off the Oregon coast in recent summers are unlike anything recorded over the past 50 years and could be driven by stronger winds that might reflect global warming trends.
In summer 2006, undersea video cameras revealed marine graveyards full of dead crabs, starfish and other sea life, OSU researchers found.

Elizabeth Gates/FileDungeness crabs washed ashore near Cape Perpetua when the ocean off Oregon experienced "dead zone" conditions in summer 2004.

The latest finding on low-oxygen, or "hypoxic," conditions, was not surprising, Stramma said, because computer climate models have predicted a decline in dissolved oxygen in the oceans under warmer conditions. Warmer water cann't absorb as much oxygen as colder water, said co-author Gregory Johnson of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle.
"So why should we care?" Bograd said. "Most marine species have minimum oxygen thresholds that they need for survival. As oxygen decreases, these animals will suffer and/or be compelled to move to other areas. Over time, the optimal area for various species will be compressed."
Bograd's findings are reported in a paper to be published in Geophysical Research Letters.
"We are not able to say definitively what has caused the oxygen declines off California," he said. But waters from the eastern tropical Pacific, a reduced-oxygen area studied by Stramma, flow into the region, "so their results and ours are consistent."
Other processes also could be at work off California, he said.
The general pattern is for the colder ocean waters in the north and south to absorb oxygen, cool and sink below the surface to then flow toward the equator, Johnson said.
Along the way, organic matter drifts down into the deeper water and its decay uses up some of the oxygen. The oxygen balance depends on this movement and the amount of oxygen reaching the warmer waters, Johnson said. "That means that eventually, at the end of the line, there will be less oxygen."
In cold surface water, oxygen levels can reach as high as 300 to 400 micromols per kilogram, Johnson said. A mol of a gas such as oxygen occupies a volume of just under 6 gallons and a micromol is one-thousandth of that. A kilogram of water is the amount that would weigh 2.2 pounds.
Dissolved oxygen varies widely in the oceans, and sea life becomes stressed when it reaches between 60 and 120 micromols per kilogram.
The researchers found concentrations as low as 10 in parts of the eastern Pacific and the northern Indian Ocean and larger areas in the Atlantic and Pacific were below 150. Stramma's team noted declines in affected areas ranging from 0.09 to 0.34 per year over the last half century.
-- The Associated Press