Cautious

Tips from Six Americas Study:

·         Debunk climate change “controversy” myth

o   Emphasize strong scientific agreement- it’s happening, caused by people, and harmful to people

·         Emphasize local impacts

·         Personal efficacy and collective efficacy – they CAN make a difference, show examples

My recommended case study: salmon

Hatfield Visitors (13) say:

• 11 of 13 will use it, all 11 will learn about an animal, 9 of 11 will make a story
• Case study: 4 salmon, 3 farmer, 3 any/all, 2 crab, 2 turtle, 1 clown fish, newt
• 8 of 9 would share their story, 4 with video, 4 with audio
• 8 of 9 - text, 7 of 9 - video clips and photos, 5 of 9- audio clips
• Local info - 5 of 9 want impacts to businesses and ecosystems, 6 - local effects, 5- personalized local info.  1 said want "local" from other side of the state as well, not just the coast
• 1 said position could change if more definitive info
• Suggestion- make stories available to other similar small facilities as a central info source.  Could also link visitors to areas- let them know a visitor was here from their area and made this story

Myth Busters: does CO2 really warm air?

Birch Aquarium exhibit- the science behind the exhibit. (This should be narrated so people can watch instead of reading)

Minute 20 of  Big Energy Gamble by PBS explains how hydrocarbons make CO2

Extreme Ice by PBS 07:05 – speed of melt astonishing – happening fastest on west coast of Alaska – explains glaciers, movement, calving, 40 years temp has risen 4 degrees Far

Local impacts:

Sea Level Rise

The melting of mountain glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets along with the thermal expansion of the oceans will likely continue to increase sea level for many hundreds of years into the future. The consensus estimate of sea level rise by 2100, published in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment, was estimated at 0.6 to 2.0 ft.  Improved estimates of the range of sea level rise by 2100, which now include estimated effects of ice dynamics, lie between 2.6 and 6.6 ft, a significantly higher estimate.

As a result of sea level rise, low lying coastal areas will eventually be inundated by seawater or periodically over-washed by waves and storm surges. Coastal wetlands will become increasingly brackish as seawater inundates freshwater wetlands. New brackish and freshwater wetland areas will be created as seawater inundates low lying inland areas or as the freshwater table is pushed upward by the higher stand of seawater.  (Pfeffer, W.T., et al., 2008)
(Source: http://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepnw.html)

Coastal and Marine Environments

In addition to temperature and rainfall changes, researchers and others have observed rising sea levels and changes to ocean conditions.  Some important climate-related factors to consider are sea level, air and sea surface temperatures, winter precipitation, and storminess. These factors influence coastal erosion, landslides, flooding and inundation, estuarine water quality, and invasion of exotic species. In particular, the following conditions increase the risk associated with various coastal hazards:

1. Increased sea level (associated with El Niño events during winter and spring) increases the risk of coastal erosion,
2. Increased winter precipitation (associated with La Niña years, and cool phase PDO years) increases the risk of coastal river flooding and landslides,
3. Southeasterly winter storms (associated with El Niño events during winter and spring) increase the risk of coastal erosion, and
4. The co-occurrence of these three conditions increases the likelihood of large, damaging coastal erosion and flooding events.

In the Pacific Northwest, climate change may affect the coastal marine environment by increasing ocean temperature, increasing the vertical stratification of the water column (reducing mixing which is important to the marine food chain), and changing the intensity and timing of coastal winds and upwelling.  Wind-driven coastal upwelling and mixing are particularly important to productive marine ecosystems that support diverse marine life, major fisheries and seabirds.  Upwelling usually brings cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface in nearshore areas, supporting highly productive food webs.  However, too much wind may transport planktonic organisms offshore and away from coastal areas.  These coastal systems are highly variable in both locality and time. Natural changes can occur daily, weekly, seasonally, yearly or even every ten years. And upwelling can vary greatly due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation events which occur on average every 2 to 7 years, as well as decadal shifts known as cool or warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.  For example, El Niño events often result in reduced upwelling and productivity.
(Littell et-al., 2009)
The Fish and Wildlife Service’s 2009 5-year review of the Marbled Murrelet (pp. 42-45) contains a thorough evaluation of climate change affects to the marine environment.  The review concludes that climate change is likely to result in changes to the murrelet’s marine environment. While physical changes to the near-shore environment appear likely, much remains to be learned about the magnitude, geographic extent, and temporal and spatial patterns of change, and their effects on coastal and marine species.
(Source: http://www.fws.gov/pacific/Climatechange/changepnw.html)


The Pacific Northwest is blessed with an amazing diversity of coastal habitats, from rocky bluffs and sandy beaches along the Pacific Coast to the tidal flats, marshes, mixed sediment beaches and eelgrass beds of Puget Sound. Together, these habitats support thousands of species of fish and wildlife, and they are a linchpin for the regional economy, culture and quality of life.
Despite its pristine image, however, the region's coastal habitats and the ecological systems they support face serious problems from global warming:

• Recent studies project that the Pacific Northwest will see a rise in sea level of 20-56 inches by 2100.
• Among the most vulnerable habitats is estuarine beach, which provides vital spawning areas for forage fish, including surf smelt and sand lance, which in turn provide food for birds, marine mammals, salmon, and other fish and wildlife.
• More than two-thirds of beaches in the Tacoma area are predicted to be lost by 2100.
• The Seattle area is built on high land, and so would have limited impact due to sea level rise. However, 741-988 acres of dry land will become marsh or tidal flat. More than half of estuarine beaches in the area will be lost.

(Source: http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/Effects-on-Wildlife-and-Habitat/Estuaries-and-Coastal-Wetlands/Pacific-Northwest.aspx)


Case study: Phytoplankton (Ocean warming)
Warmer water = less phytoplankton (see http://www.sfgate.com/green/article/Ocean-warming-s-effect-on-phytoplankton-NASA-2483373.php)
The ocean produces more oxygen than all the forests in the world.  Microscopic plants.  (Could relate- each person may not feel they can do much but together can do great things, like these phyotplankton - address the efficacy issue for these folks.)

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